The Worlds Report BluNET Studio
Track record

Every call we have ever made

54

Calls graded in public, each against the pre-registered metric it shipped with, hit or miss. As of Aug 17, 2026.

39 hits10 partials5 misses0 voids6 pending
Disclosure

Where the graded calls come from

The 54 graded calls on this page were made in the June 2026 internal editions of this report, before the public launch. Each call was pre-registered with a pass or fail metric at publish time and graded the following week under the same rules (the void and regrade policy is spelled out below). From issue #1, every call publishes in the open.

The record includes a missed flagship call. The June 22 horror wave call carried a HIGH confidence tag and graded as a miss the following week; it sits in the table below at the same prominence as every hit.

Call log

60 calls to date, newest first

Issued Call Metric Verdict Evidence
Aug 17, 2026 On Fortnite, build a GTA-flavoured open-world driving island now and abandon it after August 27. The cohort went from 2.8% to 14.3% of CCU in one week on a trailer announcement, and the showcase itself is still ahead. MED-HIGH Graded 2026-08-31, in the issue covering August 27: GTA-VI-style islands hold at least 10% of Fortnite CCU and at least three sit in the Fortnite top-15. Pending
Aug 17, 2026 Do not price the Roblox discovery change into a build decision until it shows up in two consecutive weeks. We built three calls on one week of contraction and two of them broke. MED-HIGH Like-for-like Roblox new visits do not fall below -2% week over week, and Simulator/Tycoon holds at least 24% of like-for-like share. Pending
Aug 17, 2026 Build toward a dated seasonal event rather than toward a republish, and read a content-update date as "last republished" rather than as "has content." On a winner-take-all curve the seasonal calendar is the demand schedule. MED-HIGH Murder Mystery 2 remains a net accelerator in the window ending 2026-08-24, while its event is still running. Registered separately for the 2026-08-31 issue: it turns a net decelerator in the window covering August 24 to 31, once the event has ended. Pending
Aug 17, 2026 Treat the collect-sim cohort as update-responsive and volatile, and stop calling its direction. We graded this cohort wrong two weeks running in opposite directions. MED At least two of Grow a Garden 2, Fish It! and Fisch that carry an in-window content-update date are net accelerators. If met, the cohort responds to content spend and is not structurally dead. Pending
Aug 17, 2026 Survival-to-Fortnite is still the one real opening, but build it as a genre bet rather than as the boss-fight shape. The shape evidence did not survive the week. MED Still zero Survival/Co-op islands in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU. We will also report the minutes per player of any co-op island that does enter, so the shape claim accumulates evidence rather than being re-asserted. Pending
Aug 17, 2026 On VRChat, build a room or a tool, and measure it against the platform rather than against zero. The platform drifted down this week, which means a world that merely stayed level was doing better than everything around it. MED A hangout or a utility world is still carrying its crowd next week while FISH ǃ [PYRAMID] keeps giving its own back. Pending
Aug 10, 2026 Design for retention before monetization. Roblox changed what discovery rewards inside this window and said so publicly, so build the first session and the return visit before the earner. MED-HIGH At least two of the Roblox top-5 accelerators are titles first published before 2020, and Horror/Escape holds at least 15% of new visits on a like-for-like basis. Partial The vintage half failed. One of the top-5 accelerators predates 2020: Murder Mystery 2 (2014), against Steal a Brainrot (2025), Fisch (2024), Murderers VS Sheriffs DUELS (2023) and Candy & Chocolate (2026). The Horror half held at 16.8% like-for-like, past the 15% leg. The condition is not met, so this grades partial rather than hit. The mechanism behind the call is also falsified by its own example: Murder Mystery 2 was the old-title-winning-without-content evidence, and it turns out to have been running a dated seasonal event that started July 23 and ends August 23.
Aug 10, 2026 Stop treating a content update as the growth lever on Roblox. This corrects our own call from last week. MED At least three of the top-5 Roblox decelerators shipped a content update inside the window. Hit Five of five. Animal Hospital -30.6M new visits (updated August 16), Mukbang Game -17.4M (August 17), Grow a Garden 2 -15.7M (August 15), My Avatar! -12.7M (August 15), Driving Empire -11.5M (August 14). Every one shipped inside the window and fell anyway. One qualifier stated rather than buried: updates also sat under four of the top-5 accelerators, so an update no longer predicts direction either way. It is a non-predictive lever rather than a dead one, which is a weaker and more accurate claim than the one we made.
Aug 10, 2026 Do not build a 2025-vintage collect-sim (farm, pet or fishing) as an evergreen hedge. This is the advice we gave in last week's issue, and it did not survive the week. MED Grow a Garden 2, Fish It! and Fisch are all net decelerators again. Miss Two of the three flipped to accelerators. Fisch gained 15.5M new visits (updated August 16) and Fish It! gained 0.9M (August 16). Only Grow a Garden 2 fell, at -15.7M. This is the second consecutive week we graded this cohort wrong, and in opposite directions: down with updates last week, up with updates this week. Fisch alone has run 23M, then 2.9M, then 18.4M across three windows. The honest description is a cohort that responds hard to content spend in both directions, and the 2026-08-17 call 4 replaces the directional bet with that.
Aug 10, 2026 On Fortnite, drop the GTA-6 theme and build an escape room instead. They are cheap to build and they fit the platform's session length. MED Zero GTA-VI islands in the Fortnite top-15, and Horror/Escape holds at least 8% of Fortnite CCU. Partial The GTA half failed hard. Four GTA-VI islands sit in the top-15: GRAND LOS CITY BOSS BATTLE (356 peak CCU), GDA VI MIAMI CARS (295), LOS GRAND CITY HORROR (259) and DRIVE CARS IN VA VI (204). The cohort went from 2.8% to 14.3% of Fortnite CCU. The escape-room half held at 9.8%, past the 8% leg. Condition not met. The driver was public before we published: Rockstar announced on August 6, inside the prior window, that its next GTA VI showcase airs August 27. We had that available and did not price it in.
Aug 10, 2026 Take the Survival-to-Fortnite lane as a short co-op boss fight rather than a survival grind. The shape that cleared the top-15 this week is a bounded encounter. MED Still zero Survival/Co-op islands in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU. Hit Zero Survival/Co-op islands in the Fortnite top-15, an eighth straight week open. The genre is two islands and 5 CCU, which rounds to 0.0%, against 11.5% of Roblox new visits on the other side of the gap. The boss-fight half of the reasoning did not repeat: no co-op island holds the top-15 at 20 minutes per player or better this week, and last week's example is not in this week's figures at all. The metric passed and the shape evidence behind it is now one observation rather than a trend, so the 2026-08-17 call 5 grades the genre bet and the shape claim separately.
Aug 10, 2026 On VRChat, build the permanent destination rather than the update event. The crowd a content drop pulls in leaves again over the following weeks. MED The crowd at FISH ǃ [PYRAMID] thins for a third straight week, and Popcorn Palace is still carrying its regulars without having shipped a content update. Hit Both halves. FISH ǃ [PYRAMID] thinned again, three weeks running now since its content drop, while people carry on saving it. Popcorn Palace has shipped nothing across that same stretch and is still carrying the same crowd. This is the eighth consecutive week the destination-over-event read has held, and it held this week through a platform that drifted down as a whole, which is the harder version of the test.
Aug 3, 2026 On Roblox, the growth event is an update to a base you already have. Build for a few weeks, then land a named content update rather than betting everything on a cold launch. MED-HIGH At least one title in the Roblox top-5 accelerators is an established experience that shipped a content update inside the window rather than a first launch. Hit Met, and the metric passed while the reasoning under it broke. Three of the top-5 accelerators qualify: Driving Empire (first published 2019, updated August 8, +16.6M new visits), Flee the Facility (2017, August 7, +15.7M) and Dandy's World (2024, August 9, +12.0M). The thesis did not survive the week. The biggest accelerator on the board, Murder Mystery 2 (+44.1M), has shipped nothing since July 23, and seven of the eight biggest decliners did ship a content update inside the window and fell anyway. Shipping an update no longer predicts which way a title moves, so the corrected version is re-registered as call 2 this week.
Aug 3, 2026 Do not launch a keyboard-escape or brainrot meme-sim. The format is spent, and updates have stopped reviving it. MED-HIGH Roblox Simulator/Tycoon falls below 25% of new visits, and at least one of Candy & Chocolate Keyboard Escape or Steal a Brainrot is still a net decelerator. Hit Both legs met. Roblox Simulator/Tycoon came in at 23.9% of new visits, below the 25% leg and a seventh straight weekly decline (42.6, 38.6, 34.4, 32.4, 29.7, 25.0, 23.9), and Candy & Chocolate Keyboard Escape lost 51.9M new visits despite republishing on August 10. One qualifier stated plainly: Steal a Brainrot turned positive this week at +9.4M, so the meme cohort is thinning rather than finished.
Aug 3, 2026 Treat the Roblox Horror share as borrowed. It rests on one title's July 23 update with nothing fresh behind it this week, so expect give-back. MED Roblox Horror falls below 13% of new visits, and Murder Mystery 2 is a net decelerator. Miss Both legs failed. Roblox Horror rose to 15.4% of new visits from 13.7% instead of falling below 13%, and Murder Mystery 2 was the biggest accelerator on the board at +44.1M rather than a decelerator. Its last content update is still dated July 23, a third consecutive week unchanged, so nothing new rescued it. This call was published without an escape hatch on purpose and the miss stands in the denominator. The mechanism is what we got wrong: we modelled the Horror share as a decaying content tail, and what moved it was a change to how Roblox routes attention, announced on August 5 and August 6.
Aug 3, 2026 On Fortnite, run the red-vs-blue PvP factory. It is the platform's resting state, and the GTA-6 theme has been giving share back for two weeks. HIGH Fortnite PvP and Obby combined hold at least 60% of CCU, and no GTA-VI island is #1 by peak CCU. Hit Both legs met, the second by a wide margin. Fortnite PvP at 53.7% of CCU plus Obby at 18.7% came to 72.4%, past the 60% leg. No GTA-VI island was the top island by peak CCU, and none appears anywhere in the top-15, down from five last week.
Aug 3, 2026 Take the Survival-to-Fortnite lane and build it short. Six straight weeks vacant, and the session-length gap is the reason it stays that way. MED Still zero Survival/Co-op islands in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU (the lane stays open). Hit Zero Survival/Co-op islands in the Fortnite top-15, a seventh straight week open. The genre rounds to 0.0% of Fortnite CCU, against 11.9% of Roblox new visits on the other side of the gap.
Aug 3, 2026 On VRChat, ship the update and expect it to decay. Favorites are the stored demand and an update is how you withdraw against it. MED The VRChat top occupancy tier again includes a world that reached it through a content update to an existing world rather than a fresh launch. Hit FISH ǃ [PYRAMID], the fishing world that got there on a content update rather than a fresh launch, was still drawing a crowd this week, which is what the call asked for. The decay half arrived on schedule: its crowd has thinned every week since that update landed. Going forward these calls are phrased in plain descriptive terms rather than in tiers, because our VRChat reporting stays qualitative and a tier is a figure written in words.
Jul 27, 2026 On Roblox, the update is the growth event. Build a base for a few weeks, then land a named content update on it rather than chasing a cold launch. MED-HIGH At least one title in the Roblox top-5 accelerators is a flagged content update rather than a first launch, and either Roblox Horror holds at least 9% of new visits or Tower Defense holds at least 3%. Hit Both legs met. Two of the top-5 accelerators are established experiences that flagged a content update in their own titles, Drag Drive Simulator (marked as a big update) and KNIFE DUELS (marked as a new map), and neither is a first launch. Roblox Horror came in at 13.7% of new visits, clearing the 9% leg on its own, and Tower Defense held 4.6%. The mechanic held across the whole top of the board: the three biggest accelerators were Murder Mystery 2 (+64.3M), Blox Fruits (+53.1M) and Brookhaven (+310M), each an established title shipping content rather than a cold launch.
Jul 27, 2026 Keep betting the Roblox co-op genre even though the flagship leg keeps breaking. A lane carried by breadth instead of a hit is the safest one for a new entrant. MED Roblox Survival/Co-op holds at least 12% of new visits. Hit Survival/Co-op held 12.9% of new visits, past the 12% leg, a sixth straight week above the floor. The genre cooled 11% week over week and Animal Hospital fell again to the #4 decelerator (down 18.0M), so the lane is holding on breadth rather than on a flagship, which is what the call said to bet on. Splitting the genre leg away from the specific-title leg last week is what let this grade cleanly instead of producing a sixth straight partial.
Jul 27, 2026 On Fortnite, run the factory and lean into the GTA-6 theme while the hype window is open, but budget for islands that die within days. HIGH Fortnite PvP and Obby combined hold at least 55% of CCU, and this week's fastest rising island (RED VS BLUE NEON staz) is absent from the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU. Hit PvP at 57.1% plus Obby at 13.6% was 70.7% of CCU, well past the 55% leg, and RED VS BLUE NEON staz is gone from the board rather than merely out of the top-15; its last reading was 536. Perishability held to the week: an island that peaked at 536 on its release day had no fresh figures at all seven days later.
Jul 27, 2026 Play Fortnite's new creature and collection event window as a rental, not a lane, and set the exit date now. It runs to August 25. MED Fortnite creature, pet, and collection themed islands (which land in the Simulator and RPG buckets) gain share of CCU while the event runs. The decisive test is the week after August 25, when the event ends. Partial The near-term leg missed outright. The Simulator bucket fell 23.1% to 20.4% of CCU and RPG fell 2.7% to 0.7%, so the creature and collection residual lost share instead of gaining it. The reason is dated and sits outside the call: Fortnite shipped v41.30 on July 30, the season's last major patch, which pulled hours into first-party Battle Royale, Reload and Festival, and that same residual is dominated by GTA-themed driving islands whose hype wave was reverting in the same window. It is graded partial rather than miss because the published metric itself named the week after August 25 as the decisive test, and that test is still ahead. It carries into the issue after the event ends.
Jul 27, 2026 Take the Survival-to-Fortnite lane. It is the one opening the data still endorses and it has been vacant five weeks. Build it short. MED Still zero Survival islands in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU (the lane stays open). Hit Zero Survival/Co-op islands in the Fortnite top-15, a sixth straight week open. The whole genre on Fortnite came to 0.4% of CCU across three islands and 101 concurrent players, against 12.9% of new visits on the Roblox side of the gap. The move off 0.0% is three islands on a base far too small to read as the lane filling.
Jul 27, 2026 On VRChat, ship the update, not the sequel. Favorites are stored demand and an update is how you withdraw it. MED The VRChat top occupancy tier again includes a world that reached it through a content update to an existing world rather than a fresh launch. Hit The top of the occupancy tier again went to a world that got there on a content update to a world that had already been published rather than on a fresh launch, a third consecutive week of the same pattern. Its live occupancy came down from the update spike while it held the top of the tier, and it stayed near the front of the week's favorites momentum, which is the stored-demand half of the thesis.
Jul 20, 2026 On Roblox, bet on the co-op cohort, not a single flagship. The lane just proved it outlives its leader. MED-HIGH Roblox Survival/Co-op holds at least 13% of new visits, and at least one Survival/Co-op title other than Animal Hospital sits in the top-5 accelerators. Partial Survival/Co-op held at 13.3% of new visits, past the 13% leg. The cohort leg broke: the top-5 accelerators were a Tower Defense title, a Horror title, two Simulator titles and a Party title, with no Survival/Co-op title among them, and Animal Hospital fell further to the #1 decelerator (down 38.9M). Fifth straight week where the genre leg held and the specific-title leg broke.
Jul 20, 2026 On Fortnite, watch the social-hangout lane before building it. The widest-reach island this week was a hangout, but the surge lined up with a major mid-week content update, so wait to see whether it holds once the event fades. LOW-MED At least 1 Roleplay/social island appears in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU, and Fortnite Roleplay/social holds at least 3% of CCU (this tests whether the lane is real or was the event). Hit Both legs of the metric failed, which is the reading the call was watching for. Zero Roleplay/social islands in the Fortnite top-15, and Roleplay fell from 5.4% of CCU to 1.0%, an 82% drop the week the July 16 to 18 content event unwound. The call was to watch rather than build, and its metric was pre-registered as the test of whether the lane was real rather than as a prediction. Disclosure: this call was published on July 21 as build the returnable venue at MED confidence and revised to watch before building at LOW-MED on July 23, four days before grading, when news of the mid-week event arrived. The revision is on the published issue page and the earlier wording is recorded here.
Jul 20, 2026 If you ship Fortnite clones, run a factory, not a franchise. Budget for 48-hour island lifespans. HIGH Fortnite PvP and Obby combined hold at least 60% of CCU. Hit PvP 45.8% plus Obby 16.8% was 62.6% of CCU, past the 60% leg. PvP shed a lot of share (58.1% to 45.8%) as the GTA-themed Simulator bucket took a slice, and the two default templates still carried the platform.
Jul 20, 2026 Take the Survival-to-Fortnite lane; it is the last open arbitrage flag and it is now a vacuum. Build it short (one 8-to-12 minute co-op loop). MED Still zero Survival islands in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU (the lane stays open). Hit Fortnite Survival was 0.0% of CCU with zero islands in the top-15, a fifth straight week open. The entire genre peaked at 5 concurrent players on Fortnite, against 13.3% of new visits on the Roblox side of the gap.
Jul 20, 2026 Time a horror/escape build now; it is rising on both platforms at once. MED Roblox Horror holds at least 8% of new visits and Fortnite Horror holds at least 6% of CCU (both hold). Hit Roblox Horror came in at 10.8% of new visits (up from 8.4%) and Fortnite Horror at 7.4% of CCU. Both legs met, a second straight week of the co-movement. One caveat on the Roblox side: the lift was update-driven rather than a broad rotation, since Murder Mystery 2 alone added 87.4M new visits off a July 23 update.
Jul 20, 2026 On VRChat, ship the update, not the sequel. On a destination curve your existing favorites are stored demand. LOW-MED The VRChat top occupancy tier includes at least one world that reached it through a recent update to an older world rather than a fresh launch. Hit The top occupancy tier again included a world that got there on a content update to an existing world rather than a fresh launch, and it was the same world as last week on a second consecutive update. Update-driven returns also led the week's favorites momentum.
Jul 13, 2026 On Roblox, build the one sticky co-op or anomaly loop that can become an incumbent. On a winner-take-all curve, out-retaining is the only path a small creator has. HIGH An anomaly or observation co-op title stays a top-5 Roblox accelerator, and Roblox Survival/Co-op holds at least 13% of new visits. Partial Survival/Co-op held at 15.0% (past the 13% leg), but the anomaly leg broke: Animal Hospital fell out of the accelerator table entirely and is now the #1 decelerator (down 67.7M new visits). The lane held anyway because [AZURE] Forsaken (+26.5M) and 100 Days At Sea (+21.3M) stepped into the top-3 accelerators. The share held; the specific-title thesis broke.
Jul 13, 2026 Don't build a shallow idle-collect clone on Roblox. The genre has ceded share three weeks running. MED-HIGH Roblox Simulator/Tycoon share stays at or below 36% (the slide continues rather than snapping back). Hit Simulator/Tycoon came in at 32.4%, a fourth straight week ceding share (34.4% to 32.4%). The slide continued rather than snapping back.
Jul 13, 2026 On Fortnite, ship a fast, disposable island in one of the two default templates (Red vs Blue PvP or trickshot-parkour). Build for churn, not retention. HIGH Fortnite PvP and Obby combined hold at least 65% of CCU. Hit PvP 58.1% plus Obby 14.6% was 72.7% of CCU, comfortably past the 65% leg (down from 75.8% as social took a slice).
Jul 13, 2026 Take the Survival-to-Fortnite arbitrage, but only as a short-round co-op (one 8-to-12 minute loop), not a grind. MED Still zero Survival islands in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU (the lane stays open). Hit Fortnite Survival was 0.0% of CCU (two islands, 11 CCU between them) with zero in the top-15, a fourth straight week open, and the gap widened.
Jul 13, 2026 The GTA-6 island theme is spent. Don't start one. MED At most 2 GTA-VI-themed islands appear in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU. Miss Three GTA-VI islands held the top-15 by peak CCU (369, 349, 306), and the week's fastest riser was a GTA-6 island. The wave re-formed.
Jul 13, 2026 On VRChat, ship the second-best tool or destination in a proven, multi-winner category. A lane that already works still has room for another entrant. LOW VRChat occupancy stays utility/social and at least 1 avatar-search or IP-themed world is among the week's favorites gainers. Partial The favorites leg hit: avatar-search utility worlds led the gainers, more than one at once. The occupancy leg broke: a game format reached the top occupancy tier for the first time since this report began, so a game displaced the utility/social top.
Jul 6, 2026 On Roblox, build a deep-retention co-op loop (anomaly / observation / survival). Demand is rotating from shallow idle-collect to sticky co-op. HIGH Roblox Survival/Co-op holds at least 16% of new visits and Simulator/Tycoon stays at or below 40% (the rotation continues rather than snapping back). Partial Simulator/Tycoon came in at 34.4% (at or below 40%, a third week ceding share), but Survival/Co-op was 15.8%, a hair under the 16% leg. The rotation thesis held (Animal Hospital was still the #1 accelerator, +113M); this week's fresh demand leaned to Roleplay and RPG instead.
Jul 6, 2026 Don't chase the GTA-6 island wave on Fortnite. It already unwound in a week. MED-HIGH At most 2 GTA-VI-themed islands appear in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU (the wave stays receded, does not re-inflate). Hit One GTA-VI island held the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU, down from five-of-top-9 two weeks ago. The wave stayed receded and the GTA-driven Simulator line eased.
Jul 6, 2026 On Fortnite, treat PvP (Red vs Blue / 1v1) as the durable default, not a genre to time. MED Fortnite PvP holds at least 45% of CCU (the rebound was not a one-week spike). Hit Fortnite PvP came in at 57.7% of CCU, higher than the rebound week rather than lower, and the two-template concentration (PvP plus Obby) reached 75.8%.
Jul 6, 2026 Ride the brainrot aesthetic across platforms. The meme is portable even when the game is not. MED At least 1 brainrot-titled island in the Fortnite top-15 (by momentum or CCU) and at least 1 brainrot-titled world in the Roblox top-15 by new visits. Partial Steal a Brainrot was #3 on Roblox by new visits (+319M), but no brainrot-titled island held the Fortnite top-15. The meme kept selling on Roblox and churned out of Fortnite's board.
Jul 6, 2026 The Survival-to-Fortnite arbitrage lane is still open (the sole engine-flag this week), but keep it short-session. LOW-MED Still zero Survival islands in the Fortnite top-15 by peak CCU (the lane stays open for a short-round co-op entry). Hit Fortnite Survival was 0.3% of CCU (2 islands, peak 74) with zero in the top-15. The lane stayed open a third straight week, and the engine re-flagged it.
Jul 6, 2026 On VRChat, ship a returnable destination. The avatar-search and utility lanes have room for a second entrant. LOW VRChat occupancy stays utility/social and at least 1 IP-themed or avatar-search world is among the week's favorites gainers. Hit Top occupancy stayed utility and social, and avatar-search worlds were among the week's favorites gainers, more than one at once. Both legs met.
Jun 29, 2026 Build a co-op anomaly or spot-the-change loop on Roblox. Survival/Co-op is the rising lane. MED-HIGH Roblox Survival/Co-op holds at least 12% of new visits and at least one anomaly-style co-op title stays in the top-10 accelerators. Hit Survival/Co-op rose 23% to 17.2% (now #2, past PvP), and an anomaly co-op title was the #1 accelerator again (+119M). Both legs met.
Jun 29, 2026 Ride the GTA 6 moment on Fortnite, not Roblox. The long-tail curve is where a themed island can pop. MED At least 3 GTA-themed islands in Fortnite's top 15 by peak CCU, and zero in Roblox's top 15 by new visits. Partial The platform call was right (zero GTA in Roblox's top 15), but only 2 GTA islands held Fortnite's top 15, down from five-of-top-9, and RPG fell 46.5%. The wave receded in a week.
Jun 29, 2026 Don't start a horror/escape build on the surge thesis. The wave broke. MED Roblox Horror WoW stays at or below 0% (no rebound). Miss Roblox Horror rose 6.0% WoW (Murder Mystery 2 +13.8M, Flee the Facility +8.3M). It rebounded rather than staying down; horror is choppy, not down.
Jun 29, 2026 First-mover a short-session co-op survival island on Fortnite. The lane is open and the appetite is proven on Roblox. LOW-MED Bet: no Survival island cracks Fortnite's top 15 by peak CCU this week either. Hit Fortnite Survival was 0.3% of CCU (3 islands, peak 67) with none in the top 15. The lane stayed open even as it stirred off a micro base.
Jun 29, 2026 On Roblox, ride a launching giant or a trend-skin. Don't build into the middle of a curve that just got more winner-take-all. MED Roblox top-10 new-visits share stays at or above 60%, and no world first seen this week cracks the top 10 by new visits. Hit Top-10 share was 62.8% (at or above 60%), and the top new entrant (21.8M new visits) sat far below the #10 world's 71.5M. No newcomer broke the top 10.
Jun 29, 2026 On VRChat, ship a returnable destination, optionally IP-skinned. The win there is a place people come back to. LOW The VRChat top occupancy tier stays utility/social, and at least one IP-themed world lands among the week's favorites gainers. Hit Occupancy stayed utility/social, and an IP-themed world was among the week's favorites gainers. Both legs met.
Jun 22, 2026 Keep building Horror/Escape. Positive WoW on both platforms for a third straight week. HIGH Horror stays positive WoW on both Roblox and Fortnite. Miss Roblox Horror came in at -4.8% WoW and Fortnite Horror/Escape at -16.2%. Both turned negative and the two-week wave broke.
Jun 22, 2026 On Fortnite specifically, ship a tight escape room, not generic horror. HIGH At least 2 escape-room islands appear in Fortnite's top 15 by peak CCU. Hit Two escape rooms held the top 15: BLOCK ESCAPE ROOM 33 LVL'S + at #4 (peak 324) and DUO ESCAPE SPEEDRUN at #14 (peak 246). The format outlasted the genre's cool-off.
Jun 22, 2026 The Roblox sim wave is being re-concentrated by sequels. Remix or ride, don't bare-clone. MED Simulator holds at least 40% of Roblox new visits and the new top-20 entrants are dominated by sequels and updates, not fresh clones. Partial Simulator held 42.6% and top-10 share rose to 64.2% (the concentration half landed), but the week's new entrants were a mix of fresh clones and spinoffs rather than sequel-dominated.
Jun 22, 2026 Survival/co-op stays an open lane on Fortnite. The gap has held two weeks. MED No Survival island cracks Fortnite's top 15 by peak CCU. Hit Fortnite Survival registered 0.1% of Fortnite CCU (4 islands, peak 16) with zero in the top 15. The gap stayed open, and the Roblox side of it widened.
Jun 22, 2026 The IP-fan-world play works on VRChat too, not just Roblox. LOW-MED At least 1 IP-themed world appears among VRChat's fastest favorites gainers. Hit An IP-themed fan world was among the week's fastest favorites gainers.
Jun 22, 2026 Don't chase Fortnite PvP right now. It has bled two straight weeks. MED Fortnite PvP WoW comes in negative (or barely positive) again. Hit Fortnite PvP fell -34.9% WoW, a third straight weekly decline and the steepest yet.
Jun 20, 2026 Build for Horror/Escape. It is rising on two platforms at once, which is the rarest kind of signal we get. HIGH Horror stays positive WoW on both Roblox and Fortnite. Hit Roblox Horror ran +118% WoW and Fortnite Horror/Escape +46% the following week. Both positive, and both accelerated from the prior week's +107% and +25%.
Jun 20, 2026 Ship Obby on Fortnite, where the demand actually lives. MED-HIGH Obby holds at least 20% of Fortnite CCU. Hit Obby held 23.3% of Fortnite CCU, still the #2 genre, at +8% WoW.
Jun 20, 2026 Borrow the World Cup moment on Fortnite. MED At least 2 soccer or World Cup islands appear in the week's fastest risers. Hit Three made the risers list: World Cup One Shot (+149%), Guess the Logo: World Cup (+131%), and Fall Guys Soccer (+17%).
Jun 20, 2026 The Roblox sim economy is mid-cycle, not topped out. MED Simulator holds at least 35% of Roblox new visits and at least one new steal/merge/idle entrant cracks the top 20. Hit Simulator held 43.5% of new visits and Grow a Garden 2 entered the chart at #2 by new visits.
Jun 20, 2026 Survival stays an open lane on Fortnite. LOW-MED No Survival island cracks the Fortnite top CCU tier. Hit Fortnite Survival held 0.3% of Fortnite CCU (peak island 66) with zero Survival islands in the top tier. The arbitrage gap stayed open.
Jun 20, 2026 VRChat's top occupancy tier stays utility and social, not games. HIGH The top occupancy tier remains utility/social worlds. Hit The top occupancy tier was utility or social worlds again.
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Every issue makes six falsifiable calls, each pre-registered with a named metric and threshold, then graded Hit, Partial, or Miss the following week against the same metric named in the call. Grades publish unedited.

A call is voided (removed from the denominator, counted as neither hit nor miss) only when the data needed to grade it becomes unavailable or is materially redefined through no fault of the call itself: the platform removes or redefines the metric, our own coverage misses more than half the grading window and cannot be recovered, or the subject world is deleted or privated before grading. Every void is disclosed with a one-line reason and counted in the public tally above (0 to date). We never void a losing call. If grading data is only delayed, the grade stays open up to 7 days, then the call is voided.

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