Every call we have ever made
83%
Hit rate: 10 of 12 graded calls (partials counted as neither). As of Jun 29, 2026.
Where the graded calls come from
The 12 graded calls on this page were made in the June 2026 internal editions of this report, before the public launch. Each call was pre-registered with a pass or fail metric at publish time and graded the following week under the same rules (the void and regrade policy is spelled out below). From issue #1, every call publishes in the open.
The record includes a missed flagship call. The June 22 horror wave call carried a HIGH confidence tag and graded as a miss the following week; it sits in the table below at the same prominence as every hit.
18 calls to date, newest first
| Issued | Call | Metric | Verdict | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | Build a co-op anomaly or spot-the-change loop on Roblox. Survival/Co-op is the rising lane. MED-HIGH | Roblox Survival/Co-op holds at least 12% of new visits and at least one anomaly-style co-op title stays in the top-10 accelerators. | Pending | |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Ride the GTA 6 moment on Fortnite, not Roblox. The long-tail curve is where a themed island can pop. MED | At least 3 GTA-themed islands in Fortnite's top 15 by peak CCU, and zero in Roblox's top 15 by new visits. | Pending | |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Don't start a horror/escape build on the surge thesis. The wave broke. MED | Roblox Horror WoW stays at or below 0% (no rebound). | Pending | |
| Jun 29, 2026 | First-mover a short-session co-op survival island on Fortnite. The lane is open and the appetite is proven on Roblox. LOW-MED | Bet: no Survival island cracks Fortnite's top 15 by peak CCU this week either. | Pending | |
| Jun 29, 2026 | On Roblox, ride a launching giant or a trend-skin. Don't build into the middle of a curve that just got more winner-take-all. MED | Roblox top-10 new-visits share stays at or above 60%, and no world first seen this week cracks the top 10 by new visits. | Pending | |
| Jun 29, 2026 | On VRChat, ship a returnable destination, optionally IP-skinned. The win there is a place people come back to. LOW | The VRChat top occupancy tier stays utility/social, and at least one IP-themed world lands in the top-10 favorites gainers. | Pending | |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Keep building Horror/Escape. Positive WoW on both platforms for a third straight week. HIGH | Horror stays positive WoW on both Roblox and Fortnite. | Miss | Roblox Horror came in at -4.8% WoW and Fortnite Horror/Escape at -16.2%. Both turned negative and the two-week wave broke. |
| Jun 22, 2026 | On Fortnite specifically, ship a tight escape room, not generic horror. HIGH | At least 2 escape-room islands appear in Fortnite's top 15 by peak CCU. | Hit | Two escape rooms held the top 15: BLOCK ESCAPE ROOM 33 LVL'S + at #4 (peak 324) and DUO ESCAPE SPEEDRUN at #14 (peak 246). The format outlasted the genre's cool-off. |
| Jun 22, 2026 | The Roblox sim wave is being re-concentrated by sequels. Remix or ride, don't bare-clone. MED | Simulator holds at least 40% of Roblox new visits and the new top-20 entrants are dominated by sequels and updates, not fresh clones. | Partial | Simulator held 42.6% and top-10 share rose to 64.2% (the concentration half landed), but the week's new entrants were a mix of fresh clones and spinoffs rather than sequel-dominated. |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Survival/co-op stays an open lane on Fortnite. The gap has held two weeks. MED | No Survival island cracks Fortnite's top 15 by peak CCU. | Hit | Fortnite Survival registered 0.1% of Fortnite CCU (4 islands, peak 16) with zero in the top 15. The gap stayed open, and the Roblox side of it widened. |
| Jun 22, 2026 | The IP-fan-world play works on VRChat too, not just Roblox. LOW-MED | At least 1 IP-themed world appears in VRChat's top-10 favorites gainers. | Hit | An IP-themed fan world was among the week's fastest favorites gainers. |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Don't chase Fortnite PvP right now. It has bled two straight weeks. MED | Fortnite PvP WoW comes in negative (or barely positive) again. | Hit | Fortnite PvP fell -34.9% WoW, a third straight weekly decline and the steepest yet. |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Build for Horror/Escape. It is rising on two platforms at once, which is the rarest kind of signal we get. HIGH | Horror stays positive WoW on both Roblox and Fortnite. | Hit | Roblox Horror ran +118% WoW and Fortnite Horror/Escape +46% the following week. Both positive, and both accelerated from the prior week's +107% and +25%. |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ship Obby on Fortnite, where the demand actually lives. MED-HIGH | Obby holds at least 20% of Fortnite CCU. | Hit | Obby held 23.3% of Fortnite CCU, still the #2 genre, at +8% WoW. |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Borrow the World Cup moment on Fortnite. MED | At least 2 soccer or World Cup islands appear in the week's fastest risers. | Hit | Three made the risers list: World Cup One Shot (+149%), Guess the Logo: World Cup (+131%), and Fall Guys Soccer (+17%). |
| Jun 20, 2026 | The Roblox sim economy is mid-cycle, not topped out. MED | Simulator holds at least 35% of Roblox new visits and at least one new steal/merge/idle entrant cracks the top 20. | Hit | Simulator held 43.5% of new visits and Grow a Garden 2 entered the chart at #2 by new visits. |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Survival stays an open lane on Fortnite. LOW-MED | No Survival island cracks the Fortnite top CCU tier. | Hit | Fortnite Survival held 0.3% of Fortnite CCU (peak island 66) with zero Survival islands in the top tier. The arbitrage gap stayed open. |
| Jun 20, 2026 | VRChat's top occupancy tier stays utility and social, not games. HIGH | The top-5 occupancy slots remain utility/social worlds. | Hit | All five top occupancy slots were utility or social worlds again. |
Void and regrade policy
Every issue makes six falsifiable calls, each pre-registered with a named metric and threshold, then graded Hit, Partial, or Miss the following week against the same metric named in the call. Grades publish unedited.
A call is voided (removed from the denominator, counted as neither hit nor miss) only when the data needed to grade it becomes unavailable or is materially redefined through no fault of the call itself: the platform removes or redefines the metric, our own coverage misses more than half the grading window and cannot be recovered, or the subject world is deleted or privated before grading. Every void is disclosed with a one-line reason and counted in the public tally above (0 to date). We never void a losing call. If grading data is only delayed, the grade stays open up to 7 days, then the call is voided.
If a published grade is later found wrong, we correct it, mark it regraded, and keep the original visible (none to date).
Get the next set of calls
Each issue ships new calls with pre-registered metrics and grades the prior week's set. Every Tuesday, about 10:00 ET.
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